Premier League · 2023Thu, 2 May 2024, 18:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WDWLD

2–0Full-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Tottenham Hotspur
Shots	16 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.17 xG/match▲	1.65 xG/match
Possession	37%	63%●
Corners	4 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 16 shots, 4 on target, 2.44 xG. Tottenham Hotspur: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.44 xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.97 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.97 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Chelsea

1Draws

1Tottenham Hotspur

6 Nov 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Chelsea · Premier League1–4

26 Feb 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Chelsea · Premier League2–0

14 Aug 2022Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–2

23 Jan 2022Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–0

19 Sept 2021Tottenham Hotspur — Chelsea · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 5 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/341.97 goals/match

1.74 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.59 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/341.77 xG/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/341.68 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲15.4 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲12.9 shots/match

5.41 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/345.47 shots/match

5.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/34▲4.41 shots/match

58.7%Possessionseason · 34/34●62.1%

5.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●6.15 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/346.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3411.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3418%

82%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/34▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea77.5

Tottenham Hotspur87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea67.5

Tottenham Hotspur77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea34.2

Tottenham Hotspur67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea17.5

Tottenham Hotspur22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5

Tottenham Hotspur47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea47.5

Tottenham Hotspur72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea63.8

Tottenham Hotspur70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea34 matchesTottenham Hotspur34 matches

1.91 goals/matchGoals scored34/341.97 goals/match

1.74 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.59 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals34/341.77 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShots34/34▲15.4 shots/match

5.41 shots/matchShots on target34/345.47 shots/match

58.7%Possession34/34●62.1%

5.18 corners/matchCorners34/34●6.15 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls34/3411.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea17 matchesTottenham Hotspur17 matches

2.18 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.82 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.76 goals/match

2.31 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.46 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots17/1713.5 shots/match

6.12 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.65 shots/match

57.5%Possession17/17●61.9%

5.94 corners/match●Corners17/175.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.23 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 2 May 2024, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4