PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

West Ham United 3–1 Luton Town · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

West Ham United won 3–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: luton Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.35 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible away split

moderate

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.06 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.06 shots/match11.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lucas Paquetá · West Ham United · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVladimír Coufal · West Ham United · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Kudus · West Ham United · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFred Onyedinma · Luton Town · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFred Onyedinma · Luton Town · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 65′ · 0.03 xG · goalMohammed Kudus · West Ham United · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichail Antonio · West Ham United · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJames Ward-Prowse · West Ham United · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Kudus · West Ham United · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichail Antonio · West Ham United · 60′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJames Ward-Prowse · West Ham United · 54′ · 0.10 xG · goalMichail Antonio · West Ham United · 61′ · 0.12 xG · on targetTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 86′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · West Ham United · 63′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Kudus · West Ham United · 8′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Sambi Lokonga · Luton Town · 6′ · 0.22 xG · goalJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 59′ · 0.26 xG · on targetGeorge Earthy · West Ham United · 76′ · 0.32 xG · goalJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 61′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Kudus · West Ham United · 70′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 90′ · 0.62 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Ham United: 24 shots, 8 on target, 3.18 xG. Luton Town: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′James Ward-Prowse · West Ham United · 54′Tomáš Souček · West Ham United · 65′George Earthy · West Ham United · 76′Albert Sambi Lokonga · Luton Town · 6′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Ham United 3.18 xG · Luton Town 0.32 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: West Ham United favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Luton Town in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

West Ham United37 matchesLuton Town37 matches
1.59 goals/match ▲Goals scored37/371.35 goals/match
1.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed37/372.19 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals36/361.14 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots36/3611.5 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/363.72 shots/match
40.7%Possession36/36● 42.1%
4.36 corners/matchCorners36/36● 5.36 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls36/3611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWest Ham UnitedLuton Town
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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