Premier League · 2024Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WDWWL

1–1Full-time recap

Manchester City

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester City
Shots	11 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.57 xG/match▲	0.91 xG/match
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	14 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG. Manchester City: 16 shots, 6 on target, 0.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.59 xG · Manchester City 0.92 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle United · Manchester City19.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	19.2 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	17.5 shots/match	7.5 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

weak

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.67 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.67 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.5%PossessionNewcastle United · Manchester City●64.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester City	Baseline
Possession	44.5%	64.7%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United

1Draws

4Manchester City

13 Jan 2024Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League2–3

19 Aug 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

4 Mar 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

21 Aug 2022Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League3–3

8 May 2022Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2.33 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲2.06 xG/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.87 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲19.2 shots/match

17.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲7.5 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲7 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3 shots/match

44.5%Possessionseason · 6/6●64.7%

5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●8.33 corners/match

8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/67 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United30

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United37.5

Manchester City95

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United31.7

Manchester City88.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United42.5

Manchester City67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United32.5

Manchester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United50

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United35

Manchester City73.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United6 matchesManchester City6 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2.33 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲2.06 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲19.2 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲7 shots/match

44.5%Possession6/6●64.7%

5.17 corners/matchCorners6/6●8.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United3 matchesManchester City3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.56 xG/match

7.67 shots/matchShots3/3▲16.7 shots/match

2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲6.33 shots/match

31.3%Possession3/3●60.7%

5 corners/matchCorners3/3●6.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15 fouls/matchFouls3/37.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4