Premier League · 2024Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWDDW

1–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

LLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Bournemouth
Shots	18 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.81 xG/match▲	0.31 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	9 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 18 shots, 8 on target, 1.77 xG. Bournemouth: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.77 xG · Bournemouth 0.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

1Draws

1Bournemouth

21 Apr 2024Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–1

3 Dec 2023Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2

18 Mar 2023Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

6 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 3 · 5 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.22 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/91.22 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.6 xG/match

1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.3 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲15.6 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/912.7 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.78 shots/match

3.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.67 shots/match

52.2%●Possessionseason · 9/944.6%

5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●6.89 corners/match

4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/94.67 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/914 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/911%

78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/967%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5

Bournemouth17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa43.3

Bournemouth59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa75

Bournemouth51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa22.5

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa52.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa48.8

Bournemouth80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa9 matchesBournemouth9 matches

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.22 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.6 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.6 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.78 shots/match

52.2%●Possession9/944.6%

5.44 corners/matchCorners9/9●6.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls9/914 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa5 matchesBournemouth5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.43 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match

55.2%●Possession5/548%

6.2 corners/matchCorners5/5●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4