PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WWWDL
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaNewcastle United
Shots17 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.61 xG/match1.81 xG/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners7 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pedro Neto · Chelsea · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 20′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 26′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 70′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 82′ · 0.26 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 18′ · 0.58 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.67 xG. Newcastle United: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 18′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.67 xG · Newcastle United 0.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea
1Draws
2Newcastle United
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League3–2
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 1 · 4 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.11 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/91.59 xG/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.46 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/912.6 shots/match
13 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/915.6 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/95.56 shots/match
55.4%●Possessionseason · 9/949.4%
5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●6 corners/match
3.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/96.56 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/978%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea77.5
Newcastle United52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea70
Newcastle United26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea51.7
Newcastle United45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea37.5
Newcastle United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea30
Newcastle United37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea57.5
Newcastle United72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea51.2
Newcastle United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea9 matchesNewcastle United9 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.59 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots9/912.6 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94 shots/match
55.4%●Possession9/949.4%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/9●6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls9/911.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea5 matchesNewcastle United5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
2.32 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.72 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/5●58.2%
6.8 corners/match●Corners5/56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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