PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle United · Premier League

Chelsea

WWWDL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 2–1.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.611.81
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Newcastle United 2–1. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Newcastle United): shots 17–11, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.61–1.81, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsChelsea 17 shots, Newcastle United 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsChelsea 7 shots, Newcastle United 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.61 xG1.81 xGChelsea 1.61 xG, Newcastle United 1.81 xG
  • Possession50%50%Chelsea 50%, Newcastle United 50%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersChelsea 7 corners, Newcastle United 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsChelsea 13 fouls, Newcastle United 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pedro Neto · Chelsea · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 47′ · 0.05 xG · goalNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 20′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 26′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 70′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 82′ · 0.26 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 18′ · 0.58 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.67 xG. Newcastle United: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 18′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.67 xG · Newcastle United 0.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Chelsea
1Draws
2Newcastle United
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League3–2
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea9 matchesNewcastle United9 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91 goal/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.92 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.59 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots9/912.6 shots/match
5.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94 shots/match
55.4% ●Possession9/949.4%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/9● 6 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls9/911.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headChelsea — Newcastle United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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