Premier League · 2024Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LDDLL

1–0Full-time recap

Arsenal

DWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Arsenal
Shots	9 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.53 xG/match	1.05 xG/match▲
Possession	36%	64%●
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.50 xG. Arsenal: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 0.50 xG · Arsenal 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.4 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Newcastle United

1Draws

2Arsenal

24 Feb 2024Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League4–1

4 Nov 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

7 May 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

3 Jan 2023Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

16 May 2022Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.1 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲1.57 xG/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.05 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲13.9 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲13.4 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲5.1 shots/match

5.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲4.3 shots/match

48.1%Possessionseason · 10/10●50.3%

5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/10●6.1 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1030%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United42.5

Arsenal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United25.8

Arsenal60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United52.5

Arsenal63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United42.5

Arsenal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United55

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Arsenal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United43.1

Arsenal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United10 matchesArsenal10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.57 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match

48.1%Possession10/10●50.3%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/10●6.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United5 matchesArsenal5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.8 xG/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

38%Possession5/5●47%

5.6 corners/match●Corners5/53.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4