Premier League · 2024Sun, 3 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

DLDWL

1–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Chelsea
Shots	11 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.98 xG/match▲	1.1 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	4 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	19 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 11 shots, 4 on target, 2.00 xG. Chelsea: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 2.00 xG · Chelsea 1.14 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/matchCornersManchester United · Chelsea6 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Chelsea	Baseline
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match	5.4 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester United

2Draws

1Chelsea

4 Apr 2024Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League4–3

6 Dec 2023Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

25 May 2023Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

22 Oct 2022Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

28 Apr 2022Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 5 · 5 too close

0.9 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/101.2 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲1.84 xG/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.36 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1013.7 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1012.8 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/105.3 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.2 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 10/10●55.3%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106 corners/match

4.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.8 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United67.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United49.2

Chelsea65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United72.5

Chelsea53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United52.5

Chelsea32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United35

Chelsea35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United67.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United59.4

Chelsea53.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United10 matchesChelsea10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

1.68 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.84 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots10/1013.7 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target10/105.3 shots/match

52.1%Possession10/10●55.3%

6 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United5 matchesChelsea5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.35 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

48.6%Possession5/5●57%

6 corners/match●Corners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Nov 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4