PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Tottenham Hotspur 4–1 Aston Villa · Premier League

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tottenham Hotspur won 4–1.

Shots
1612
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
2.441.86
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tottenham Hotspur beat Aston Villa 4–1. Recorded in this match (Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa): shots 16–12, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 2.44–1.86, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.2 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.2 shots/match ▲ShotsTottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurAston VillaBaseline
Shots17.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against9.8 shots/match10.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3% ●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa51.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurAston VillaBaseline
Possession61.3%51.9%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots12 shotsTottenham Hotspur 16 shots, Aston Villa 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotTottenham Hotspur 6 shots, Aston Villa 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.44 xG1.86 xGTottenham Hotspur 2.44 xG, Aston Villa 1.86 xG
  • Possession51%49%Tottenham Hotspur 51%, Aston Villa 49%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersTottenham Hotspur 6 corners, Aston Villa 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsTottenham Hotspur 14 fouls, Aston Villa 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Aston Villa · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Aston Villa · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 51′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJames Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.13 xG · goalOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 42′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 3′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedDiego Carlos · Aston Villa · 64′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 49′ · 0.57 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 75′ · 0.57 xG · goalMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.70 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 79′ · 0.76 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.43 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Brennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 49′Dominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 75′Dominic Solanke · Tottenham Hotspur · 79′James Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 2.43 xG · Aston Villa 1.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Tottenham Hotspur
0Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–4
Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–1
Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2
Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tottenham Hotspur favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur10 matchesAston Villa10 matches
2.2 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
1.1 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
2.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.54 xG/match
17.2 shots/match ▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match
6.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
61.3% ●Possession10/1051.9%
9 corners/match ●Corners10/105.3 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTottenham HotspurAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headTottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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