Premier League · 2024Sun, 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

WWLWL

4–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WDDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa
Shots	16 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.44 xG/match▲	1.86 xG/match
Possession	51%●	49%
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.43 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 2.43 xG · Aston Villa 1.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	2.2 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.2 shots/match▲ShotsTottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	17.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	9.8 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa51.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	Baseline
Possession	61.3%	51.9%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Tottenham Hotspur

0Draws

3Aston Villa

10 Mar 2024Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–4

26 Nov 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

13 May 2023Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–1

1 Jan 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

9 Apr 2022Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1 · 4 too close

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.7 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.5 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.54 xG/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/101.15 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1012.4 shots/match

9.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1010.9 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/104.1 shots/match

3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/103.8 shots/match

61.3%●Possessionseason · 10/1051.9%

9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/105.3 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.6 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur92.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur94.2

Aston Villa44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur85.8

Aston Villa64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur62.5

Aston Villa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur65

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur92.5

Aston Villa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur85.6

Aston Villa46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur10 matchesAston Villa10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.54 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

61.3%●Possession10/1051.9%

9 corners/match●Corners10/105.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur5 matchesAston Villa5 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.59 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

58.2%●Possession5/548.6%

9.4 corners/match●Corners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4