PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Manchester City · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brighton & Hove Albion won 2–1.

Shots
1015
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
2.292.22
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Manchester City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Brighton & Hove Albion – Manchester City): shots 10–15, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 2.29–2.22, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Manchester City19.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match19.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match7.82 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.1%PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Manchester City● 64.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityBaseline
Possession54.1%64.1%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots15 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 10 shots, Manchester City 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 4 shots, Manchester City 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.29 xG2.22 xGBrighton & Hove Albion 2.29 xG, Manchester City 2.22 xG
  • Possession40%60%Brighton & Hove Albion 40%, Manchester City 60%
  • Corners0 corners4 cornersBrighton & Hove Albion 0 corners, Manchester City 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsBrighton & Hove Albion 12 fouls, Manchester City 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPervis Estupiñán · Brighton & Hove Albion · 35′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 17′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 65′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedKaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 68′ · 0.21 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 35′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′ · 0.25 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 69′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedJack Hinshelwood · Brighton & Hove Albion · 52′ · 0.37 xG · on targetSavinho · Manchester City · 15′ · 0.48 xG · on targetMatt O'Riley · Brighton & Hove Albion · 83′ · 0.54 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.63 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.65 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 10 shots, 4 on target, 2.30 xG. Manchester City: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′Matt O'Riley · Brighton & Hove Albion · 83′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 2.30 xG · Manchester City 2.60 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Brighton & Hove Albion
1Draws
4Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City · Premier League0–4
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City · Premier League1–1
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion11 matchesManchester City11 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 2 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 2.03 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 19.3 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 6.73 shots/match
54.1%Possession11/11● 64.1%
5.45 corners/matchCorners11/11● 9.27 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls11/116.91 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Nov 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionManchester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headBrighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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