Premier League · 2024Sun, 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDWWW

1–3Full-time recap

Newcastle United

DDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Newcastle United
Shots	9 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.63 xG/match	1.7 xG/match▲
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.58 xG. Newcastle United: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.58 xG · Newcastle United 1.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.36 goals/match	1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

0Draws

3Newcastle United

10 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest — Newcastle United · Premier League2–3

26 Dec 2023Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–3

17 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2

6 Aug 2022Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 1 · 3 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.18 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.5 xG/match

1.04 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 11/111.35 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1112.6 shots/match

13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1114.5 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114.18 shots/match

3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.91 shots/match

41.7%Possessionseason · 11/11●48.8%

5.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●5.73 corners/match

6.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/116.27 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1182%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Newcastle United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest60.8

Newcastle United31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest75

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Newcastle United40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest51.9

Newcastle United41.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest11 matchesNewcastle United11 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.5 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.6 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.18 shots/match

41.7%Possession11/11●48.8%

5.27 corners/matchCorners11/11●5.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest6 matchesNewcastle United6 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.72 xG/match

14.8 shots/matchShots6/614.3 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on target6/64.67 shots/match

48.8%Possession6/6●57.8%

5.83 corners/matchCorners6/65.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls6/68.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4