Premier League · 2024Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WWWLL

1–0Full-time recap

Ipswich Town

LLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Ipswich Town
Shots	12 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match▲	0.59 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.71 xG. Ipswich Town: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.71 xG · Ipswich Town 0.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town have a visible away split

moderate

Ipswich Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.86 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.69 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.86 shots/match	9.69 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Ipswich Town9.69 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Ipswich Town	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	9.69 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	13.2 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Ipswich Town in 0 · 3 too close

1.23 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.85 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/130.95 xG/match

1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/132.09 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/139.69 shots/match

13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1314.9 shots/match

4.77 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.23 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/135.85 shots/match

41.4%Possessionseason · 13/13●41.6%

5.15 corners/match●Cornersseason · 13/135 corners/match

6.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/136.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Ipswich Town12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest43.3

Ipswich Town12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest68.3

Ipswich Town20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Ipswich Town17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Ipswich Town87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest45

Ipswich Town37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest38.1

Ipswich Town36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest13 matchesIpswich Town13 matches

1.23 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals13/130.95 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots13/139.69 shots/match

4.77 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.23 shots/match

41.4%Possession13/13●41.6%

5.15 corners/match●Corners13/135 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest7 matchesIpswich Town7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.14 goals/match

0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.93 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots7/77.86 shots/match

4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73 shots/match

48.3%●Possession7/739%

6.14 corners/match●Corners7/74.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls7/714 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4