Premier League · 2024Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWLD

2–1Full-time recap

Leicester City

DLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Leicester City
Shots	13 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match▲	0.41 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	6 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.57 xG. Leicester City: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.57 xG · Leicester City 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leicester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Leicester City8.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Leicester City	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	8.7 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	11.7 shots/match	17.6 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leicester City.

4.8 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Leicester City6.02 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Leicester City	Baseline
Rest days	4.8 days	6.02 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Aston Villa

1Draws

1Leicester City

31 Aug 2024Leicester City — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

4 Apr 2023Leicester City — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

4 Feb 2023Aston Villa — Leicester City · Premier League2–4

23 Apr 2022Leicester City — Aston Villa · Premier League0–0

5 Dec 2021Aston Villa — Leicester City · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 1 · 2 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.15 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/202.2 goals/match

1.58 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/200.97 xG/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/202 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/208.7 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2017.6 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.15 shots/match

4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/206.2 shots/match

50.6%●Possessionseason · 20/2045.7%

6.6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/203.35 corners/match

4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/206.8 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/205%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa52.5

Leicester City22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa37.5

Leicester City12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa56.7

Leicester City11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa57.5

Leicester City27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa85

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa50.6

Leicester City11.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa20 matchesLeicester City20 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.15 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/202.2 goals/match

1.58 xG/match▲Expected goals20/200.97 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots20/208.7 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.15 shots/match

50.6%●Possession20/2045.7%

6.6 corners/match●Corners20/203.35 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa11 matchesLeicester City10 matches

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101.2 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/102.7 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals11/100.96 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots11/108.7 shots/match

5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.3 shots/match

55.2%●Possession11/1042%

8 corners/match●Corners11/103.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1010.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.02 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4