Premier League · 2024Sun, 5 Jan 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

DDWWW

2–2Full-time recap

Manchester United

LWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Manchester United
Shots	19 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.82 xG/match▲	1.05 xG/match
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	6 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.83 xG. Manchester United: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 2.83 xG · Manchester United 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.47 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.47 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool.

6.97 days▲Rest daysLiverpool · Manchester United5.85 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Liverpool	Manchester United	Baseline
Rest days	6.97 days	5.85 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Manchester United13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	16.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	9.84 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Liverpool

2Draws

1Manchester United

1 Sept 2024Manchester United — Liverpool · Premier League0–3

7 Apr 2024Manchester United — Liverpool · Premier League2–2

17 Dec 2023Liverpool — Manchester United · Premier League0–0

5 Mar 2023Liverpool — Manchester United · Premier League7–0

22 Aug 2022Manchester United — Liverpool · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 0 · 3 too close

2.47 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/201.15 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/201.4 goals/match

2.36 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/201.4 xG/match

0.94 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/201.52 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/2013.3 shots/match

9.84 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/2011.3 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/204.7 shots/match

3.26 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/204.05 shots/match

56.9%●Possessionseason · 19/2053.5%

6.47 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/205.05 corners/match

4.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/204.6 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/2011.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/2030%

95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/2060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool82.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool94.2

Manchester United36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool93.3

Manchester United70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool77.5

Manchester United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool62.5

Manchester United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool77.5

Manchester United50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool81.2

Manchester United44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool19 matchesManchester United20 matches

2.47 goals/match▲Goals scored19/201.15 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/201.4 goals/match

2.36 xG/match▲Expected goals19/201.4 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots19/2013.3 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target19/204.7 shots/match

56.9%●Possession19/2053.5%

6.47 corners/match●Corners19/205.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls19/2011.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool10 matchesManchester United10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.33 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match

6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.6 shots/match

57.1%●Possession10/1053.2%

6.3 corners/match●Corners10/104.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.97 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.85 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Jan 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4