PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenal
Shots11 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.52 xG/match▲0.88 xG/match
Possession45%55%●
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls17 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matt O'Riley · Brighton & Hove Albion · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPervis Estupiñán · Brighton & Hove Albion · 48′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdam Webster · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 79′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYasin Ayari · Brighton & Hove Albion · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 16′ · 0.07 xG · goalThomas Partey · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYankuba Minteh · Brighton & Hove Albion · 77′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · Brighton & Hove Albion · 21′ · 0.17 xG · on targetGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 10′ · 0.25 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 61′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.57 xG. Arsenal: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 61′Ethan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 16′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.57 xG · Arsenal 0.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal.

4.91 days▲Rest daysBrighton & Hove Albion · Arsenal3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenalBaseline
Rest days4.91 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton & Hove Albion
1Draws
3Arsenal
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Arsenal · Premier League0–3
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–0
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–3
Brighton & Hove Albion — Arsenal · Premier League2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 3 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.95 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.9 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/20▲1.75 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.9 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2013.8 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲10.7 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/205.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲3.35 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 20/20●55.2%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/20●6.25 corners/match
5.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲3.1 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲35%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2085%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion59.2
Arsenal70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion56.7
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5
Arsenal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5
Arsenal47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5
Arsenal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5
Arsenal61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion20 matchesArsenal20 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.95 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲0.9 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲1.75 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2013.8 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on target20/205.1 shots/match
52.8%Possession20/20●55.2%
5 corners/matchCorners20/20●6.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion10 matchesArsenal11 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.91 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲1.09 goals/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals10/111.54 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1110.5 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.73 shots/match
53.9%●Possession10/1152.3%
5.7 corners/match●Corners10/114.45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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