Premier League · 2024Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WWDWL

7–0Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

DDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	3.41 xG/match▲	0.88 xG/match
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.7%PossessionNottingham Forest · Brighton & Hove Albion●53.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	39.7%	53.8%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

2Draws

2Brighton & Hove Albion

22 Sept 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2

10 Mar 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

25 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–3

26 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1

18 Oct 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 4 · 5 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.46 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.58 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/241.36 xG/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.52 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲14 shots/match

13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11.4 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/244.63 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲4.08 shots/match

39.7%Possessionseason · 24/24●53.8%

4.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●5.25 corners/match

6.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲4.96 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2421%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2483%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Brighton & Hove Albion72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest50.8

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest56.7

Brighton & Hove Albion58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Brighton & Hove Albion82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest35

Brighton & Hove Albion63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest24 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion24 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.46 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.58 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.36 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots24/24▲14 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target24/244.63 shots/match

39.7%Possession24/24●53.8%

4.38 corners/matchCorners24/24●5.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest12 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion13 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.62 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.85 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals12/131.25 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1312.1 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/134.69 shots/match

44.2%Possession12/13●52.5%

4.58 corners/matchCorners12/13●4.62 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls12/1311.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4