Premier League · 2024Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Wolverhampton

DLLLL

2–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

DWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Wolverhampton	Aston Villa
Shots	8 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.57 xG/match▲	0.51 xG/match
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	5 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	20 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Wolverhampton: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.65 xG. Aston Villa: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.65 xG · Aston Villa 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolverhampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Wolverhampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolverhampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.42 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.1 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsWolverhampton · Aston Villa12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Wolverhampton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.8 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Wolverhampton

2Draws

2Aston Villa

21 Sept 2024Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League3–1

30 Mar 2024Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–0

8 Oct 2023Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

6 May 2023Wolverhampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

4 Jan 2023Aston Villa — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Wolverhampton favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 7 · 3 too close

1.42 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.42 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.54 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲1.47 xG/match

1.67 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.25 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲12.5 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11.8 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.13 shots/match

5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲4.25 shots/match

46.5%Possessionseason · 24/24●50.4%

3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●6.25 corners/match

6.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲4.42 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2413%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolverhampton32.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolverhampton30

Aston Villa33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolverhampton22.5

Aston Villa55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolverhampton12.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton97.5

Aston Villa80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton2.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolverhampton37.5

Aston Villa54.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Wolverhampton24 matchesAston Villa24 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.42 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.54 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲1.47 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots24/24▲12.5 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.13 shots/match

46.5%Possession24/24●50.4%

3.33 corners/matchCorners24/24●6.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Wolverhampton12 matchesAston Villa12 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.92 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals12/121.17 xG/match

9.75 shots/matchShots12/1210.1 shots/match

4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123 shots/match

46%Possession12/12●46.3%

3.42 corners/matchCorners12/12●4.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4