Premier League · 2024Fri, 14 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

DWWLL

3–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

DDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Chelsea
Shots	13 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Expected goals	1.42 xG/match▲	0.54 xG/match
Possession	31%	69%●
Corners	2 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.41 xG. Chelsea: 8 shots, 0 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.41 xG · Chelsea 0.53 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brighton & Hove Albion

0Draws

3Chelsea

28 Sept 2024Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League4–2

15 May 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–2

3 Dec 2023Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–2

15 Apr 2023Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–2

29 Oct 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 6 · 5 too close

1.52 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.88 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/25▲1.99 xG/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/251.45 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲16 shots/match

11.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2511.3 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.72 shots/match

3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.76 shots/match

52.8%Possessionseason · 25/25●58.6%

5.12 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/25●6 corners/match

5.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2516%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion55.8

Chelsea83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

Chelsea54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

Chelsea57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion82.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Chelsea78.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion25 matchesChelsea25 matches

1.52 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.88 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.36 goals/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲1.99 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots25/25▲16 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.72 shots/match

52.8%Possession25/25●58.6%

5.12 corners/matchCorners25/25●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion12 matchesChelsea13 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/13▲1.92 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals12/13▲1.88 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots12/1314.2 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/13▲4.92 shots/match

53.3%Possession12/13●60.7%

5.67 corners/matchCorners12/13●6.31 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4