Premier League · 2024Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Aston Villa

DDLDD

2–1Historical match

Chelsea

DWLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Chelsea
Shots	12 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.56 xG/match▲	2.12 xG/match
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	15 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.32 xG. Chelsea: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.32 xG · Chelsea 2.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa. A second useful context is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa.

2.92 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Chelsea7.9 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	2.92 days	7.9 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.85 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

1Draws

2Chelsea

1 Dec 2024Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

27 Apr 2024Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League2–2

24 Sept 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

1 Apr 2023Chelsea — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

16 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Chelsea · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 3 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/26▲1.85 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/26▲1.38 goals/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/26▲1.99 xG/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/261.49 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/26▲16 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2611.3 shots/match

4.26 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/26▲5.77 shots/match

4.26 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/264.81 shots/match

51.4%Possessionseason · 27/26●58.2%

6.44 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/265.88 corners/match

4.37 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/26▲3.58 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2612 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/26▲15%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa52.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa35.8

Chelsea84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa52.5

Chelsea55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa32.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa82.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa53.8

Chelsea81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa27 matchesChelsea26 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored27/26▲1.85 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed27/26▲1.38 goals/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goals27/26▲1.99 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots27/26▲16 shots/match

4.26 shots/matchShots on target27/26▲5.77 shots/match

51.4%Possession27/26●58.2%

6.44 corners/match●Corners27/265.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2612 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa15 matchesChelsea14 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored15/14▲1.86 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.5 goals/match

1.79 xG/matchExpected goals15/14▲1.9 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots15/1414.2 shots/match

5.27 shots/matchShots on target15/145.07 shots/match

55.5%Possession15/14●59.8%

7.73 corners/match●Corners15/146.07 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4