PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaIpswich Town
Shots25 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.42 xG/match▲0.37 xG/match
Possession76%●24%
Corners16 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Marcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Ipswich Town · 13′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndrés García · Aston Villa · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrés García · Aston Villa · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKalvin Phillips · Ipswich Town · 25′ · 0.06 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 78′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 81′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 56′ · 0.11 xG · goalMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 32′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 53′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 69′ · 0.27 xG · goalMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 44′ · 0.32 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 34′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 25 shots, 6 on target, 2.47 xG. Ipswich Town: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 69′Liam Delap · Ipswich Town · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.47 xG · Ipswich Town 0.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town have a visible away split

moderate

Ipswich Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.08 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.83 shots/match9.08 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Ipswich Town9.08 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaIpswich TownBaseline
Shots13 shots/match9.08 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Aston Villa
1Draws
0Ipswich Town
Ipswich Town — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Ipswich Town in 0 · 2 too close

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/250.92 goals/match
1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/252 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/250.91 xG/match
1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 25/252.04 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/259.08 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2515.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.36 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/255.68 shots/match
51.4%●Possessionseason · 25/2540%
6.64 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/253.92 corners/match
4.28 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/256.72 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/258%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2564%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa52.5
Ipswich Town10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa34.2
Ipswich Town7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa55
Ipswich Town19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa42.5
Ipswich Town12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5
Ipswich Town62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa87.5
Ipswich Town15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa55
Ipswich Town23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa25 matchesIpswich Town25 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored25/250.92 goals/match
1.52 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/252 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals25/250.91 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots25/259.08 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.36 shots/match
51.4%●Possession25/2540%
6.64 corners/match●Corners25/253.92 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa13 matchesIpswich Town12 matches
1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.17 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/122 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals13/120.86 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots13/126.83 shots/match
5.31 shots/match▲Shots on target13/122.92 shots/match
56.1%●Possession13/1236%
8.31 corners/match●Corners13/123.58 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1212.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaIpswich Town
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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