PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

DDWWD
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalBrentford
Shots14 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.96 xG/match▲0.24 xG/match
Possession64%●36%
Corners13 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorginho · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 74′ · 0.13 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.27 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG. Brentford: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Thomas Partey · Arsenal · 61′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.98 xG · Brentford 0.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Brentford11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against9.34 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Arsenal
1Draws
0Brentford
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League1–3
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League2–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League1–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.63 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.5 goals/match
1.59 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 32/321.51 xG/match
0.85 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 32/321.52 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3211.3 shots/match
9.34 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3217.4 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/324.63 shots/match
3.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/325.53 shots/match
56.4%●Possessionseason · 32/3247.6%
6.72 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/324.47 corners/match
2.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/326.63 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/328.13 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3219%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5
Brentford32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal72.5
Brentford49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Brentford19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal32.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal42.5
Brentford7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal92.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal67.5
Brentford32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal32 matchesBrentford32 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.63 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.5 goals/match
1.59 xG/matchExpected goals32/321.51 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots32/3211.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target32/324.63 shots/match
56.4%●Possession32/3247.6%
6.72 corners/match●Corners32/324.47 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls32/328.13 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal16 matchesBrentford16 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.31 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.26 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots16/169.69 shots/match
5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164 shots/match
57.4%●Possession16/1644.6%
7.88 corners/match●Corners16/163.94 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls16/169 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match