PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 1–1 Brentford · Premier League

Arsenal

DDWWD
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal and Brentford drew 1–1.

Shots
143
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.960.24
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal and Brentford drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Brentford): shots 14–3, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.96–0.24, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Brentford11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against9.34 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots3 shotsArsenal 14 shots, Brentford 3 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsArsenal 3 shots, Brentford 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.24 xGArsenal 0.96 xG, Brentford 0.24 xG
  • Possession64%36%Arsenal 64%, Brentford 36%
  • Corners13 corners5 cornersArsenal 13 corners, Brentford 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls9 foulsArsenal 7 fouls, Brentford 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOleksandr Zinchenko · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorginho · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 74′ · 0.13 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.27 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 14 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG. Brentford: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Thomas Partey · Arsenal · 61′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.98 xG · Brentford 0.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Arsenal
1Draws
0Brentford
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League1–3
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League2–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Brentford · Premier League1–1
Brentford — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal32 matchesBrentford32 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/321.63 goals/match
0.84 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.5 goals/match
1.59 xG/matchExpected goals32/321.51 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots32/3211.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target32/324.63 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession32/3247.6%
6.72 corners/match ●Corners32/324.47 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls32/328.13 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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