Premier League · 2024Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Ipswich Town

LLWLD

0–4Full-time recap

Arsenal

DWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Ipswich Town	Arsenal
Shots	4 shots/match	24 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.17 xG/match	2.55 xG/match▲
Possession	25%	75%●
Corners	0 corners/match	12 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Ipswich Town: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.16 xG. Arsenal: 24 shots, 7 on target, 2.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 0.16 xG · Arsenal 2.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.55 shots/match▲ShotsIpswich Town · Arsenal14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	9.55 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	16.4 shots/match	9.18 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.2%PossessionIpswich Town · Arsenal●57%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Arsenal	Baseline
Possession	40.2%	57%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Ipswich Town

0Draws

1Arsenal

27 Dec 2024Arsenal — Ipswich Town · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.85 goals/match

2.15 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲0.82 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 33/33▲1.62 xG/match

2.04 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/33▲0.83 xG/match

9.55 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲14.3 shots/match

16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲9.18 shots/match

3.39 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲4.82 shots/match

5.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.09 shots/match

40.2%Possessionseason · 33/33●57%

3.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/33●6.88 corners/match

6.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲2.85 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3311 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲36%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town12.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town12.5

Arsenal75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town14.2

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town17.5

Arsenal32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town62.5

Arsenal35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town12.5

Arsenal92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town25

Arsenal69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town33 matchesArsenal33 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.85 goals/match

2.15 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲0.82 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲1.62 xG/match

9.55 shots/matchShots33/33▲14.3 shots/match

3.39 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲4.82 shots/match

40.2%Possession33/33●57%

3.91 corners/matchCorners33/33●6.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls33/3311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town17 matchesArsenal17 matches

0.76 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.76 goals/match

2.35 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.82 goals/match

0.88 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.54 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots17/17▲11.9 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4 shots/match

43.1%Possession17/17●56.5%

4.06 corners/matchCorners17/17●5.94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4