PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Chelsea 1–0 Manchester United · Premier League

Chelsea

DWWWL
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 1–0.

Shots
114
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.830.3
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Manchester United 1–0. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Manchester United): shots 11–4, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.83–0.3, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots4 shotsChelsea 11 shots, Manchester United 4 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotChelsea 3 shots, Manchester United 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.83 xG0.3 xGChelsea 0.83 xG, Manchester United 0.3 xG
  • Possession47%53%Chelsea 47%, Manchester United 53%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersChelsea 7 corners, Manchester United 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsChelsea 10 fouls, Manchester United 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Reece James · Chelsea · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTosin Adarabioyo · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedReece James · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 79′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMason Mount · Manchester United · 21′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMason Mount · Manchester United · 52′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 71′ · 0.16 xG · goalNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 5′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.80 xG. Manchester United: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Marc Cucurella · Chelsea · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 0.80 xG · Manchester United 0.30 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Chelsea
2Draws
2Manchester United
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League1–1
Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League4–3
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League2–1
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester United in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea37 matchesManchester United37 matches
1.7 goals/match ▲Goals scored37/371.14 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed37/371.46 goals/match
1.83 xG/match ▲Expected goals37/371.36 xG/match
15.9 shots/match ▲Shots37/3713.6 shots/match
5.84 shots/match ▲Shots on target37/374.46 shots/match
57.4% ●Possession37/3753.2%
6.22 corners/match ●Corners37/375.22 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls37/3710.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 May 2025, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaManchester United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headChelsea — Manchester United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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