PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Fri, 16 May 2025, 19:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DWWWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaManchester United
Shots11 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals0.83 xG/match▲0.3 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners7 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Reece James · Chelsea · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTosin Adarabioyo · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedReece James · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 79′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMason Mount · Manchester United · 21′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMason Mount · Manchester United · 52′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 71′ · 0.16 xG · goalNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 5′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.80 xG. Manchester United: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Marc Cucurella · Chelsea · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 0.80 xG · Manchester United 0.30 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Chelsea
2Draws
2Manchester United
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League1–1
Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League4–3
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League2–1
Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Chelsea — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 0 · 3 too close

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/371.14 goals/match
1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 37/371.46 goals/match
1.83 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 37/371.36 xG/match
1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 37/371.48 xG/match
15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/3713.6 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3711.1 shots/match
5.84 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/374.46 shots/match
4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/374.08 shots/match
57.4%●Possessionseason · 37/3753.2%
6.22 corners/match●Cornersseason · 37/375.22 corners/match
3.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 37/374.81 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3710.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/3724%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5
Manchester United72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea83.3
Manchester United39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea77.5
Manchester United64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea77.5
Manchester United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea57.5
Manchester United17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea77.5
Manchester United52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea78.8
Manchester United41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea37 matchesManchester United37 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored37/371.14 goals/match
1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowed37/371.46 goals/match
1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals37/371.36 xG/match
15.9 shots/match▲Shots37/3713.6 shots/match
5.84 shots/match▲Shots on target37/374.46 shots/match
57.4%●Possession37/3753.2%
6.22 corners/match●Corners37/375.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls37/3710.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea19 matchesManchester United19 matches
1.84 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.11 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.37 goals/match
1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.21 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots19/1912.9 shots/match
6.68 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.42 shots/match
55.5%●Possession19/1953.7%
6.47 corners/match●Corners19/194.84 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.25 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 May 2025, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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