Premier League · 2024Sun, 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

LDLLL

2–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Aston Villa
Shots	25 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.95 xG/match▲	0.39 xG/match
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 26 shots, 10 on target, 2.95 xG. Aston Villa: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 2.95 xG · Aston Villa 0.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester United

1Draws

1Aston Villa

6 Oct 2024Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League0–0

11 Feb 2024Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League1–2

26 Dec 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League3–2

30 Apr 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

6 Nov 2022Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 5 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 38/38▲1.53 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.34 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 38/38▲1.51 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 38/38▲1.32 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 38/3812.7 shots/match

10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 38/3812.2 shots/match

4.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 38/384.47 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 38/384.21 shots/match

53.5%●Possessionseason · 38/3850.6%

5.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 38/38●6.05 corners/match

4.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 38/384.53 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3810.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/3824%

61%Scoring frequencyseason · 38/38▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Aston Villa52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United47.5

Aston Villa44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United66.7

Aston Villa60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United47.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United27.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United52.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United50

Aston Villa46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United38 matchesAston Villa38 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲1.53 goals/match

1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲1.34 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals38/38▲1.51 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots38/3812.7 shots/match

4.61 shots/matchShots on target38/384.47 shots/match

53.5%●Possession38/3850.6%

5.18 corners/matchCorners38/38●6.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls38/3810.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United19 matchesAston Villa19 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.26 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.63 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.21 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.1 shots/match

4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.37 shots/match

53.3%●Possession19/1945.7%

5.53 corners/match●Corners19/194.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.82 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.85 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4