PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle United · Premier League

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Leeds United won 4–1.

Shots
157
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.910.85
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4–1. Recorded in this match (Leeds United – Newcastle United): shots 15–7, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.91–0.85, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Leeds United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Leeds United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsLeeds United · Newcastle United9.75 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Shots12 shots/match9.75 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match19 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots7 shotsLeeds United 15 shots, Newcastle United 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsLeeds United 6 shots, Newcastle United 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.91 xG0.85 xGLeeds United 1.91 xG, Newcastle United 0.85 xG
  • Possession51%49%Leeds United 51%, Newcastle United 49%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersLeeds United 5 corners, Newcastle United 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsLeeds United 8 fouls, Newcastle United 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsLeeds United 1 card, Newcastle United 2 cards
  • Passes429 passes418 passesLeeds United 429 passes, Newcastle United 418 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%82.1%Leeds United 83%, Newcastle United 82.1%
  • Shots inside box10 shots4 shotsLeeds United 10 shots, Newcastle United 4 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks0 blocksLeeds United 5 blocks, Newcastle United 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesLeeds United 4 saves, Newcastle United 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides3 offsidesLeeds United 2 offsides, Newcastle United 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 32′Lewis MileyGoal · Newcastle United
  2. 34′Dominic Calvert-LewinGoal · Leeds United
  3. 44′Dominic Calvert-LewinYellow card · Leeds United
  4. 45′Dominic Calvert-LewinGoal · Leeds United
  5. Half-time
  6. 54′Jacob MurphyYellow card · Newcastle United
  7. 59′Noah OkaforGoal · Leeds United
  8. 90′Bazoumana TouréGoal · Newcastle United
  9. 90′Tino LivramentoYellow card · Newcastle United
  10. Full time
Player changes · 11grouped by team and minute
  • 19′Newcastle United · 1 player changeSean Steur
  • 57′Newcastle United · 1 player changeBazoumana Touré
  • 58′Newcastle United · 2 player changesTino Livramento · Joe Willock
  • 72′Leeds United · 2 player changesHarry Wilson · Brenden Aaronson
  • 73′Leeds United · 1 player changeMelvin Bard
  • 79′Leeds United · 1 player changeLukas Nmecha
  • 80′Newcastle United · 1 player changeAladji Bamba
  • 83′Leeds United · 1 player changeDaniel James
  • 88′Leeds United · 1 player changeSean Longstaff

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Leeds United3-5-2
  1. James TraffordG
  2. Jayden BogleD
  3. Gabriel GudmundssonD
  4. Tarik MuharemovićD
  5. James JustinD
  6. Nico ElvediD
  7. Ethan AmpaduM
  8. Anton StachM
  9. Ao TanakaM
  10. Dominic Calvert-LewinF
  11. Noah OkaforF
Newcastle United4-2-3-1
  1. Lukáš HorníčekG
  2. Tino LivramentoD
  3. Lewis HallD
  4. Sven BotmanD
  5. Malick ThiawD
  6. Nico GonzálezM
  7. Joe WillockM
  8. Lewis MileyM
  9. Yoane WissaF
  10. Harvey BarnesF
  11. Anthony ElangaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Leeds United
3Draws
2Newcastle United
Newcastle United — Leeds United · Premier League4–3
Leeds United — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0
Leeds United — Newcastle United · Premier League2–2
Newcastle United — Leeds United · Premier League0–0
Leeds United — Newcastle United · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Leeds United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Leeds United4 matchesNewcastle United4 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/41.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/40.96 xG/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
44%Possession4/4● 46.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLeeds UnitedNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headLeeds United — Newcastle United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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