PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tofiq Bəhramov

Qarabag 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt · UEFA Champions League

Qarabag

WLDLL
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Qarabag won 3–2.

Shots
118
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.781.21
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Qarabağ beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2. Recorded in this match (Qarabağ – Eintracht Frankfurt): shots 11–8, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.78–1.21, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Eintracht Frankfurt show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsQarabağ · Eintracht Frankfurt7.29 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricQarabağEintracht FrankfurtBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match7.29 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match17 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Qarabağ have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.9% ●PossessionQarabağ · Eintracht Frankfurt38.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricQarabağEintracht FrankfurtBaseline
Possession46.9%38.7%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsQarabag 11 shots, Eintracht Frankfurt 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsQarabag 5 shots, Eintracht Frankfurt 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG1.21 xGQarabag 1.78 xG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.21 xG
  • Possession58%42%Qarabag 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 42%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerQarabag 7 corners, Eintracht Frankfurt 1 corner
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsQarabag 8 fouls, Eintracht Frankfurt 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Can Uzun · Eintracht Frankfurt · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoni Montiel · Qarabağ · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEllyes Skhiri · Eintracht Frankfurt · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Andrade · Qarabağ · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFarès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobin Koch · Eintracht Frankfurt · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoni Montiel · Qarabağ · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · Eintracht Frankfurt · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPedro Bicalho · Qarabağ · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPedro Bicalho · Qarabağ · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBahlul Mustafazada · Qarabağ · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalCan Uzun · Eintracht Frankfurt · 10′ · 0.12 xG · goalRitsu Doan · Eintracht Frankfurt · 25′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Andrade · Qarabağ · 4′ · 0.29 xG · on targetCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 4′ · 0.46 xG · goalCamilo Durán · Qarabağ · 80′ · 0.77 xG · goalFarès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 78′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Qarabağ: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.91 xG. Eintracht Frankfurt: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Camilo Durán · Qarabağ · 4′Camilo Durán · Qarabağ · 80′Bahlul Mustafazada · Qarabağ · 90′Can Uzun · Eintracht Frankfurt · 10′Farès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Qarabağ 1.91 xG · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.23 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Qarabag favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Eintracht Frankfurt in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Qarabag13 matchesEintracht Frankfurt7 matches
2.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/71.43 goals/match
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/72.71 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.76 xG/match
10.9 shots/match ▲Shots9/77.29 shots/match
4.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/73.29 shots/match
46.9% ●Possession9/738.7%
3.44 corners/match ●Corners9/72.43 corners/match
7.67 fouls/matchFouls9/78.57 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsQarabagEintracht Frankfurt
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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