PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Kras Stadion

FC Volendam 2–1 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Volendam won 2–1.

Shots
1212
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.760.64
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Volendam beat NAC Breda 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC Volendam – NAC Breda): shots 12–12, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.76–0.64, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Volendam have a visible home split

moderate

FC Volendam's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match10.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots12 shotsFC Volendam 12 shots, NAC Breda 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsFC Volendam 5 shots, NAC Breda 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG0.64 xGFC Volendam 1.76 xG, NAC Breda 0.64 xG
  • Possession51%49%FC Volendam 51%, NAC Breda 49%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersFC Volendam 8 corners, NAC Breda 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsFC Volendam 13 fouls, NAC Breda 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Henk Veerman · FC Volendam · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYannick Leliendal · FC Volendam · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNordin Bukala · FC Volendam · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAurelio Oehlers · FC Volendam · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 64′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAurelio Oehlers · FC Volendam · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeron Payne · FC Volendam · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoel Ideho · FC Volendam · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 26′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 10′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHenk Veerman · FC Volendam · 66′ · 0.11 xG · on targetNick Verschuren · NAC Breda · 32′ · 0.15 xG · goalHenk Veerman · FC Volendam · 83′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRobert Mühren · FC Volendam · 78′ · 0.29 xG · goalRobert Mühren · FC Volendam · 90′ · 0.30 xG · on targetHenk Veerman · FC Volendam · 58′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Volendam: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.75 xG. NAC Breda: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Henk Veerman · FC Volendam · 58′Robert Mühren · FC Volendam · 78′Nick Verschuren · NAC Breda · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Volendam 1.75 xG · NAC Breda 0.79 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Volendam favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Volendam12 matchesNAC Breda12 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.25 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.75 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.27 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 12.1 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 4 shots/match
45.1%Possession12/12● 47%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/12● 4.42 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC VolendamNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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