Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTCFull timeRat Verlegh StadionFull-time recap

NAC Breda

WLLDD

1–0Full-time recap

Go Ahead Eagles

WLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	NAC Breda	Go Ahead Eagles
Shots	8 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.59 xG/match	0.65 xG/match▲
Possession	43%	57%
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

NAC Breda: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.61 xG. Go Ahead Eagles: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 0.61 xG · Go Ahead Eagles 0.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.27 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

NAC Breda favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Go Ahead Eagles in 6 · 6 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/111.28 xG/match

1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.6 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1111.6 shots/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1118 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.91 shots/match

5.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/115.36 shots/match

46.8%Possessionseason · 11/1152.6%

4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.91 corners/match

3.82 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.55 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/119.18 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

NAC Breda36.1

Go Ahead Eagles63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

NAC Breda24.1

Go Ahead Eagles37

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

NAC Breda43.5

Go Ahead Eagles42.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

NAC Breda30.6

Go Ahead Eagles8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

NAC Breda69.4

Go Ahead Eagles13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

NAC Breda30.6

Go Ahead Eagles77.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

NAC Breda36.8

Go Ahead Eagles38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.09 xG/match

13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match

49.4%Possession5/553.4%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.3 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match

47.5%Possession10/1054.6%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.55 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals11/111.28 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShots11/1111.6 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.91 shots/match

46.8%Possession11/1152.6%

4.27 corners/matchCorners11/115.91 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls11/119.18 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.5 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.1 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match

4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.17 shots/match

48.5%Possession6/651.7%

4.5 corners/matchCorners6/64.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/69 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.95 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match