PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 1–0 Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NAC Breda won 1–0.

Shots
87
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.590.65
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

NAC Breda beat Go Ahead Eagles 1–0. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – Go Ahead Eagles): shots 8–7, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.59–0.65, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots7 shotsNAC Breda 8 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsNAC Breda 2 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.59 xG0.65 xGNAC Breda 0.59 xG, Go Ahead Eagles 0.65 xG
  • Possession43%57%NAC Breda 43%, Go Ahead Eagles 57%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersNAC Breda 2 corners, Go Ahead Eagles 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsNAC Breda 10 fouls, Go Ahead Eagles 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Clint Leemans · NAC Breda · 5′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMelle Meulensteen · Go Ahead Eagles · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThibo Baeten · Go Ahead Eagles · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMelle Meulensteen · Go Ahead Eagles · 15′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 48′ · 0.06 xG · goalMilan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 2′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMilan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles · 75′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMilan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles · 83′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 5′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMelle Meulensteen · Go Ahead Eagles · 80′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.61 xG. Go Ahead Eagles: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Juho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 0.61 xG · Go Ahead Eagles 0.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0NAC Breda
1Draws
1Go Ahead Eagles
NAC Breda — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie1–1
Go Ahead Eagles — NAC Breda · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Go Ahead Eagles in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda11 matchesGo Ahead Eagles11 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.55 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.55 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals11/111.28 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots11/1111.6 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 4.91 shots/match
46.8%Possession11/11● 52.6%
4.27 corners/matchCorners11/11● 5.91 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls11/119.18 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaGo Ahead Eagles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — Go Ahead Eagles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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