Eredivisie · 2025BUKO Stadion

SC Telstar 2–3 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 2–3.

Shots
716
Shots on target
310
Expected goals
0.771.74
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat SC Telstar 3–2. Recorded in this match (SC Telstar – AFC Ajax): shots 7–16, shots on target 3–10, expected goals 0.77–1.74, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

weak

AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.2%PossessionSC Telstar · AFC Ajax● 57.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC TelstarAFC AjaxBaseline
Possession43.2%57.4%50.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots16 shotsSC Telstar 7 shots, AFC Ajax 16 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots10 shotsSC Telstar 3 shots, AFC Ajax 10 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG1.74 xGSC Telstar 0.77 xG, AFC Ajax 1.74 xG
  • Possession35%65%SC Telstar 35%, AFC Ajax 65%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersSC Telstar 8 corners, AFC Ajax 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls6 foulsSC Telstar 6 fouls, AFC Ajax 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Don-Angelo Konadu · AFC Ajax · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 17′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 83′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 11′ · 0.04 xG · goalKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 48′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 38′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 14′ · 0.09 xG · goalDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 48′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLucas Rosa · AFC Ajax · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNils Rossen · SC Telstar · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNeville Nwankwo · SC Telstar · 57′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetYouri Baas · AFC Ajax · 72′ · 0.13 xG · goalYouri Baas · SC Telstar · 78′ · 0.13 xG · goalNeville Nwankwo · SC Telstar · 27′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDon-Angelo Konadu · AFC Ajax · 86′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 43′ · 0.20 xG · on targetDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 84′ · 0.22 xG · goalKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 23′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Telstar: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.88 xG. AFC Ajax: 16 shots, 10 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Youri Baas · SC Telstar · 78′Danny Bakker · SC Telstar · 84′Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 11′Mika Godts · AFC Ajax · 14′Youri Baas · AFC Ajax · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Telstar 0.88 xG · AFC Ajax 1.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Telstar
0Draws
1AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — SC Telstar · Eredivisie2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Telstar favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Telstar18 matchesAFC Ajax18 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.94 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.53 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 14.9 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 6.33 shots/match
43.2%Possession18/18● 57.4%
5.11 corners/matchCorners18/18● 5.33 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

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