PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 2–2 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior and AFC Ajax drew 2–2.

Shots
119
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
0.80.63
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior and AFC Ajax drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – AFC Ajax): shots 11–9, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 0.8–0.63, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

weak

AFC Ajax's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match15.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsExcelsior · AFC Ajax15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorAFC AjaxBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match15.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%PossessionExcelsior · AFC Ajax● 57.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorAFC AjaxBaseline
Possession45%57.2%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsExcelsior 11 shots, AFC Ajax 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsExcelsior 5 shots, AFC Ajax 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG0.63 xGExcelsior 0.8 xG, AFC Ajax 0.63 xG
  • Possession48%52%Excelsior 48%, AFC Ajax 52%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerExcelsior 4 corners, AFC Ajax 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls5 foulsExcelsior 12 fouls, AFC Ajax 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lennard Hartjes · Excelsior · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJerolldino Bergraaf · Excelsior · 61′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRick Meissen · Excelsior · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRick Meissen · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 48′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 21′ · 0.14 xG · goalMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 40′ · 0.15 xG · goalArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 79′ · 0.18 xG · goalMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 74′ · 0.24 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.80 xG. AFC Ajax: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Miliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 74′Arthur Zagre · Excelsior · 79′Mika Godts · AFC Ajax · 21′Mika Godts · AFC Ajax · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 0.80 xG · AFC Ajax 0.62 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
2Draws
2AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–2
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–4
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie7–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior21 matchesAFC Ajax21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 1.95 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.67 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots21/21▲ 15.6 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲ 6.52 shots/match
45%Possession21/21● 57.2%
4.1 corners/matchCorners21/21● 5.14 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 15:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorAFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — AFC Ajax
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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