PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Erve Asito

Heracles 2–1 Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Heracles won 2–1.

Shots
1112
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
2.010.6
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Heracles Almelo beat Fortuna Sittard 2–1. Recorded in this match (Heracles Almelo – Fortuna Sittard): shots 11–12, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 2.01–0.6, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible home split

strong

Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsHeracles Almelo · Fortuna Sittard13.6 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHeracles AlmeloFortuna SittardBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match13.6 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots12 shotsHeracles 11 shots, Fortuna Sittard 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsHeracles 7 shots, Fortuna Sittard 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.01 xG0.6 xGHeracles 2.01 xG, Fortuna Sittard 0.6 xG
  • Possession46%54%Heracles 46%, Fortuna Sittard 54%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersHeracles 4 corners, Fortuna Sittard 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls14 foulsHeracles 17 fouls, Fortuna Sittard 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 39′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 37′ · 0.03 xG · goalMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhilip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNaci Ünüvar · Heracles Almelo · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNeraysho Kasanwirjo · Fortuna Sittard · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetShawn Adewoye · Fortuna Sittard · 59′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 64′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 42′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMimeirhel Benita · Heracles Almelo · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJustin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 63′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 80′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 53′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 26′ · 0.24 xG · goalLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 42′ · 0.38 xG · on targetAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 44′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Heracles Almelo: 11 shots, 7 on target, 2.08 xG. Fortuna Sittard: 12 shots, 6 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 26′Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 44′Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Heracles Almelo 2.08 xG · Fortuna Sittard 0.62 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Heracles
3Draws
2Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard — Heracles · Eredivisie1–1
Fortuna Sittard — Heracles · Eredivisie1–0
Heracles — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–2
Heracles — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie0–0
Fortuna Sittard — Heracles · Eredivisie4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Heracles favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortuna Sittard in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Heracles21 matchesFortuna Sittard21 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored21/211.48 goals/match
2.52 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.71 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.11 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots21/21▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.19 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲ 4.62 shots/match
43.5%Possession21/21● 45.9%
4.29 corners/matchCorners21/21● 4.62 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls20/2113.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHeraclesFortuna Sittard
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headHeracles — Fortuna Sittard
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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