PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion de Goffert

NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Heracles · Eredivisie

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NEC Nijmegen won 4–1.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.551.16
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles Almelo 4–1. Recorded in this match (NEC Nijmegen – Heracles Almelo): shots 15–10, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.55–1.16, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.41 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible away split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match10.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

NEC Nijmegen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsNEC Nijmegen · Heracles Almelo10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNEC NijmegenHeracles AlmeloBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match10.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsNEC Nijmegen 15 shots, Heracles 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsNEC Nijmegen 6 shots, Heracles 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.55 xG1.16 xGNEC Nijmegen 2.55 xG, Heracles 1.16 xG
  • Possession69%31%NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heracles 31%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersNEC Nijmegen 3 corners, Heracles 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls18 foulsNEC Nijmegen 10 fouls, Heracles 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDarko Nejašmić · NEC Nijmegen · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarko Nejašmić · NEC Nijmegen · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWalid Ould-Chikh · Heracles Almelo · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 42′ · 0.04 xG · goalBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 17′ · 0.08 xG · goalMike te Wierik · Heracles Almelo · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 23′ · 0.13 xG · goalDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 68′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 61′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 51′ · 0.27 xG · on targetLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 25′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 27′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goalNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 90′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NEC Nijmegen: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.61 xG. Heracles Almelo: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 17′Tjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 42′Başar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 57′Noe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 90′Lequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NEC Nijmegen 2.61 xG · Heracles Almelo 1.17 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3NEC Nijmegen
0Draws
2Heracles
Heracles — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–4
Heracles — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–2
NEC Nijmegen — Heracles · Eredivisie1–2
NEC Nijmegen — Heracles · Eredivisie3–1
Heracles — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NEC Nijmegen favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NEC Nijmegen21 matchesHeracles22 matches
2.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/221.41 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/222.59 goals/match
1.81 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/221.25 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots21/2210.9 shots/match
6.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/224.09 shots/match
56.5% ●Possession21/2242.9%
5.24 corners/match ●Corners21/224.36 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2113.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNEC NijmegenHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNEC Nijmegen — Heracles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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