PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 0–2 Excelsior · Eredivisie

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 0–2.

Shots
159
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.080.86
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat NAC Breda 2–0. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – Excelsior): shots 15–9, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.08–0.86, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsNAC Breda 15 shots, Excelsior 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsNAC Breda 6 shots, Excelsior 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.08 xG0.86 xGNAC Breda 1.08 xG, Excelsior 0.86 xG
  • Possession49%51%NAC Breda 49%, Excelsior 51%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersNAC Breda 8 corners, Excelsior 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls15 foulsNAC Breda 6 fouls, Excelsior 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Amine Salama · NAC Breda · 68′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEmil Hansson · Excelsior · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 59′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Janssen · Excelsior · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 3′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEmil Hansson · Excelsior · 18′ · 0.06 xG · goalKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 36′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Schouten · Excelsior · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Schouten · Excelsior · 27′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 31′ · 0.14 xG · goalMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 79′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedSimon Janssen · Excelsior · 64′ · 0.32 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.21 xG. Excelsior: 9 shots, 6 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Emil Hansson · Excelsior · 18′Irakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 31′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 1.21 xG · Excelsior 0.84 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1NAC Breda
0Draws
2Excelsior
Excelsior — NAC Breda · Eredivisie1–0
Excelsior — NAC Breda · Eredivisie4–1
NAC Breda — Excelsior · Eredivisie6–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Excelsior in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda22 matchesExcelsior22 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored22/221.09 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.68 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.24 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots22/2211.5 shots/match
4.23 shots/matchShots on target22/224.05 shots/match
48.8% ●Possession22/2245.3%
5.36 corners/match ●Corners22/224.05 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls22/2213 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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