PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Johan Cruijff ArenA

AFC Ajax 1–2 Olympiacos FC · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympiacos FC won 1–2.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.840.54
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Olympiacos FC beat AFC Ajax 2–1. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – Olympiacos FC): shots 11–11, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.84–0.54, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Olympiacos FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Olympiacos FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax have a visible home split

weak

AFC Ajax's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.25 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.25 shots/match10.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · Olympiacos FC13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxOlympiacos FCBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsAFC Ajax 11 shots, Olympiacos FC 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsAFC Ajax 4 shots, Olympiacos FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.84 xG0.54 xGAFC Ajax 1.84 xG, Olympiacos FC 0.54 xG
  • Possession63%37%AFC Ajax 63%, Olympiacos FC 37%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersAFC Ajax 5 corners, Olympiacos FC 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls8 foulsAFC Ajax 11 fouls, Olympiacos FC 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCostinha · Olympiacos FC · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPanagiotis Retsos · Olympiacos FC · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSean Steur · AFC Ajax · 58′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAyoub El Kaabi · Olympiacos FC · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCostinha · Olympiacos FC · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoub El Kaabi · Olympiacos FC · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCostinha · Olympiacos FC · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYouri Baas · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGelson Martins · Olympiacos FC · 52′ · 0.05 xG · goalSantiago Hezze · Olympiacos FC · 79′ · 0.05 xG · goalGelson Martins · Olympiacos FC · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCostinha · Olympiacos FC · 13′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 86′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMehdi Taremi · Olympiacos FC · 43′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSean Steur · AFC Ajax · 65′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 25′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 8′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 69′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AFC Ajax: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.86 xG. Olympiacos FC: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 69′Gelson Martins · Olympiacos FC · 52′Santiago Hezze · Olympiacos FC · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AFC Ajax 1.86 xG · Olympiacos FC 0.53 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Olympiacos FC in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax8 matchesOlympiacos FC8 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
2.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.2 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.13 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession8/841.8%
4.88 corners/match ●Corners8/84.5 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/812 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxOlympiacos FC
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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