PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025AFAS Stadion

AZ Alkmaar 4–0 Heracles · Eredivisie

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AZ Alkmaar won 4–0.

Shots
146
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
3.280.66
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

AZ Alkmaar beat Heracles Almelo 4–0. Recorded in this match (AZ Alkmaar – Heracles Almelo): shots 14–6, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 3.28–0.66, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Heracles Almelo have a visible away split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.36 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.36 shots/match10.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AZ Alkmaar show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AZ Alkmaar's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAZ Alkmaar · Heracles Almelo10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles AlmeloBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match10.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsAZ Alkmaar 14 shots, Heracles 6 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsAZ Alkmaar 7 shots, Heracles 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.28 xG0.66 xGAZ Alkmaar 3.28 xG, Heracles 0.66 xG
  • Possession52%48%AZ Alkmaar 52%, Heracles 48%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersAZ Alkmaar 7 corners, Heracles 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls19 foulsAZ Alkmaar 10 fouls, Heracles 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ivan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 45′ · 0.00 xG · on targetSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSem Scheperman · Heracles Almelo · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenso Kasius · AZ Alkmaar · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIsak Steiner Jensen · AZ Alkmaar · 84′ · 0.08 xG · goalSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 53′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJan Žambůrek · Heracles Almelo · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBilly van Duijl · AZ Alkmaar · 29′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 15′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 37′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKees Smit · AZ Alkmaar · 77′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 28′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLequincio Zeefuik · Heracles Almelo · 64′ · 0.26 xG · on targetTroy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 5′ · 0.42 xG · goalSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 45′ · 0.49 xG · goalSven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 55′ · 0.77 xG · off target or blockedMees De Wit · AZ Alkmaar · 74′ · 0.79 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AZ Alkmaar: 14 shots, 7 on target, 3.27 xG. Heracles Almelo: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Troy Parrott · AZ Alkmaar · 5′Sven Mijnans · AZ Alkmaar · 45′Mees De Wit · AZ Alkmaar · 74′Isak Steiner Jensen · AZ Alkmaar · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AZ Alkmaar 3.27 xG · Heracles Almelo 0.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AZ Alkmaar
1Draws
2Heracles
Heracles — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie1–2
Heracles — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie1–0
AZ Alkmaar — Heracles · Eredivisie1–0
Heracles — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie5–0
AZ Alkmaar — Heracles · Eredivisie1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AZ Alkmaar favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AZ Alkmaar27 matchesHeracles27 matches
1.74 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.19 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/272.56 goals/match
1.88 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.17 xG/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots27/2710.9 shots/match
5.81 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.81 shots/match
52.5% ●Possession27/2743.7%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners27/274.26 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2613.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAZ AlkmaarHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headAZ Alkmaar — Heracles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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