PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Mac3Park Stadion

PEC Zwolle 2–1 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PEC Zwolle won 2–1.

Shots
820
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.821.04
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 2–1. Recorded in this match (PEC Zwolle – NAC Breda): shots 8–20, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.82–1.04, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PEC Zwolle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

PEC Zwolle's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.36 goals/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PEC Zwolle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.5 shots/match ▲ShotsPEC Zwolle · NAC Breda13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwolleNAC BredaBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match
Shots against17.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots20 shotsPEC Zwolle 8 shots, NAC Breda 20 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsPEC Zwolle 2 shots, NAC Breda 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.82 xG1.04 xGPEC Zwolle 0.82 xG, NAC Breda 1.04 xG
  • Possession44%56%PEC Zwolle 44%, NAC Breda 56%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersPEC Zwolle 2 corners, NAC Breda 5 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls14 foulsPEC Zwolle 20 fouls, NAC Breda 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYounes Namli · PEC Zwolle · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 41′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAmine Salama · NAC Breda · 49′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 18′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYounes Namli · PEC Zwolle · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Ghalidi · NAC Breda · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Jensen · NAC Breda · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZico Buurmeester · PEC Zwolle · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPepijn Reulen · NAC Breda · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 67′ · 0.08 xG · goalOdysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle · 24′ · 0.10 xG · goalCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 7′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEnes Mahmutović · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAnselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle · 24′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetTristan Gooijer · PEC Zwolle · 53′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 22′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.82 xG. NAC Breda: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 22′Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle · 24′Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 0.82 xG · NAC Breda 1.04 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1PEC Zwolle
1Draws
1NAC Breda
NAC Breda — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie2–2
NAC Breda — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie1–3
PEC Zwolle — NAC Breda · Eredivisie1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PEC Zwolle favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PEC Zwolle28 matchesNAC Breda28 matches
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.04 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 1.79 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals28/281.19 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 4.07 shots/match
44.6%Possession28/28● 48.7%
3.39 corners/matchCorners28/28● 5.32 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPEC ZwolleNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headPEC Zwolle — NAC Breda
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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