PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

FC Groningen 2–3 Excelsior · Eredivisie

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 2–3.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
1.142.58
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat FC Groningen 3–2. Recorded in this match (FC Groningen – Excelsior): shots 12–18, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 1.14–2.58, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Groningen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Groningen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Groningen · Excelsior12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC GroningenExcelsiorBaseline
Shots16 shots/match12.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsFC Groningen 12 shots, Excelsior 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsFC Groningen 5 shots, Excelsior 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG2.58 xGFC Groningen 1.14 xG, Excelsior 2.58 xG
  • Possession56%44%FC Groningen 56%, Excelsior 44%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersFC Groningen 5 corners, Excelsior 8 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls10 foulsFC Groningen 5 fouls, Excelsior 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Thijmen Blokzijl · FC Groningen · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTika de Jonge · FC Groningen · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTika de Jonge · FC Groningen · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYounes Taha · FC Groningen · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSzymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRyan Metu · FC Groningen · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 83′ · 0.04 xG · on targetThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYounes Taha · FC Groningen · 26′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 9′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBrynjólfur Darri Willumsson · FC Groningen · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMarco Rente · FC Groningen · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 9′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 36′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYounes Taha · FC Groningen · 47′ · 0.15 xG · goalCasper Widell · Excelsior · 10′ · 0.18 xG · on targetTika de Jonge · FC Groningen · 3′ · 0.19 xG · goalNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 61′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRick Meissen · Excelsior · 6′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 65′ · 0.21 xG · goalEmil Hansson · Excelsior · 5′ · 0.26 xG · on targetCasper Widell · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.27 xG · goalGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.45 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Groningen: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.86 xG. Excelsior: 18 shots, 9 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Tika de Jonge · FC Groningen · 3′Younes Taha · FC Groningen · 47′Casper Widell · Excelsior · 40′Derensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 65′Gyan de Regt · Excelsior · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Groningen 0.86 xG · Excelsior 2.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Groningen
0Draws
1Excelsior
Excelsior — FC Groningen · Eredivisie0–2
FC Groningen — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–0
Excelsior — FC Groningen · Eredivisie1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Groningen favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Excelsior in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Groningen32 matchesExcelsior32 matches
1.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/321.22 goals/match
1.34 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.66 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/321.36 xG/match
16 shots/match ▲Shots32/3212.5 shots/match
5.78 shots/match ▲Shots on target32/324.38 shots/match
50.9% ●Possession32/3247%
6.31 corners/match ●Corners32/324.13 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls32/3212.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 20:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC GroningenExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Groningen — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required