PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Johan Cruijff ArenA

AFC Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax and PSV Eindhoven drew 2–2.

Shots
137
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.951.8
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax and PSV Eindhoven drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – PSV Eindhoven): shots 13–7, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.95–1.8, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AFC Ajax's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14.4 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots7 shotsAFC Ajax 13 shots, PSV Eindhoven 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsAFC Ajax 4 shots, PSV Eindhoven 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG1.8 xGAFC Ajax 0.95 xG, PSV Eindhoven 1.8 xG
  • Possession49%51%AFC Ajax 49%, PSV Eindhoven 51%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersAFC Ajax 6 corners, PSV Eindhoven 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls14 foulsAFC Ajax 7 fouls, PSV Eindhoven 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mauro Júnior · PSV Eindhoven · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Berghuis · AFC Ajax · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYarek Gasiorowski · PSV Eindhoven · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 11′ · 0.04 xG · goalSteven Berghuis · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 84′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Rosa · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 34′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYouri Baas · AFC Ajax · 70′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 47′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 1′ · 0.19 xG · goalYouri Regeer · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 8′ · 0.48 xG · off target or blockedMyron Boadu · PSV Eindhoven · 77′ · 0.93 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AFC Ajax: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.92 xG. PSV Eindhoven: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 11′Mika Godts · AFC Ajax · 90′Ricardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 1′Myron Boadu · PSV Eindhoven · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AFC Ajax 0.92 xG · PSV Eindhoven 1.81 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AFC Ajax
2Draws
1PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
PSV Eindhoven — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–2
AFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie3–2
AFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–1
PSV Eindhoven — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie5–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax32 matchesPSV Eindhoven32 matches
1.91 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 2.88 goals/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.34 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 2.08 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 17.5 shots/match
5.88 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 7.22 shots/match
56.1%Possession32/32● 61.2%
4.81 corners/matchCorners32/32● 7.13 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxPSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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