PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 0–2 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 0–2.

Shots
218
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.632.29
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat NAC Breda 2–0. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – AFC Ajax): shots 21–8, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.63–2.29, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots8 shotsNAC Breda 21 shots, AFC Ajax 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsNAC Breda 3 shots, AFC Ajax 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG2.29 xGNAC Breda 1.63 xG, AFC Ajax 2.29 xG
  • Possession57%43%NAC Breda 57%, AFC Ajax 43%
  • Corners11 corners2 cornersNAC Breda 11 corners, AFC Ajax 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls11 foulsNAC Breda 6 fouls, AFC Ajax 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 47′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrahim Ghalidi · NAC Breda · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Rosa · AFC Ajax · 9′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 54′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 56′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPepijn Reulen · NAC Breda · 67′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 6′ · 0.23 xG · on targetMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 79′ · 0.24 xG · on targetAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 87′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 20′ · 0.80 xG · goalMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 41′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 21 shots, 3 on target, 1.47 xG. AFC Ajax: 8 shots, 6 on target, 2.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 20′Mika Godts · AFC Ajax · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 1.47 xG · AFC Ajax 2.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1NAC Breda
0Draws
2AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — NAC Breda · Eredivisie2–1
AFC Ajax — NAC Breda · Eredivisie3–1
NAC Breda — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda31 matchesAFC Ajax31 matches
0.97 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.9 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.59 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots31/3114.5 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 5.94 shots/match
49.5%Possession31/31● 56.3%
5.77 corners/match ●Corners31/314.77 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaAFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — AFC Ajax
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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