Süper Lig · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 18:30 UTCFull timeAntalya StadiumFull-time recap
12Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAntalyasporFatih Karagümrük
Shots9 shots/match17 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals0.91 xG/match1.56 xG/match
Possession48%52%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Atakan Çankaya · Fatih Karagümrük · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBaris Kalayci · Fatih Karagümrük · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndre Gray · Fatih Karagümrük · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTarik Bugra Kalpakli · Fatih Karagümrük · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBaris Kalayci · Fatih Karagümrük · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Çukur · Fatih Karagümrük · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Giannetti · Antalyaspor · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerginho · Fatih Karagümrük · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Giannetti · Antalyaspor · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTarik Bugra Kalpakli · Fatih Karagümrük · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Çankaya · Fatih Karagümrük · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGüray Vural · Antalyaspor · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGüray Vural · Antalyaspor · 11′ · 0.05 xG · goalDaniel Johnson · Fatih Karagümrük · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMert Yilmaz · Antalyaspor · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnıl Yiğit Çınar · Fatih Karagümrük · 42′ · 0.08 xG · goalTomáš Čvančara · Antalyaspor · 34′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBaris Kalayci · Fatih Karagümrük · 79′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTomáš Čvančara · Antalyaspor · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Johnson · Fatih Karagümrük · 85′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAtakan Çankaya · Fatih Karagümrük · 75′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedTiago Çukur · Fatih Karagümrük · 53′ · 0.24 xG · on targetAbdülkadir Ömür · Antalyaspor · 50′ · 0.38 xG · on targetDaniel Johnson · Fatih Karagümrük · 90′ · 0.52 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Antalyaspor: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.79 xG. Fatih Karagümrük: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Güray Vural · Antalyaspor · 11′Anıl Yiğit Çınar · Fatih Karagümrük · 42′Daniel Johnson · Fatih Karagümrük · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Antalyaspor 0.79 xG · Fatih Karagümrük 1.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Antalyaspor favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Fatih Karagümrük in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/32 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/30.87 xG/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/31.98 xG/match
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/311.3 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/317.7 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/33.33 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/37 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 4/348.3%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/33.67 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/37.67 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/313 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/30%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Antalyaspor34.6
Fatih Karagümrük42.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Antalyaspor52.6
Fatih Karagümrük43.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Antalyaspor47.4
Fatih Karagümrük12.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Antalyaspor19.2
Fatih Karagümrük42.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Antalyaspor50
Fatih Karagümrük65.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Antalyaspor50
Fatih Karagümrük23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Antalyaspor51.9
Fatih Karagümrük48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/32 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals4/30.87 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots4/311.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target4/33.33 shots/match
47.3%Possession4/348.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/33.67 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/313 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/32 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals4/30.87 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots4/311.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target4/33.33 shots/match
47.3%Possession4/348.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/33.67 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/313 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/32 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals4/30.87 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots4/311.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target4/33.33 shots/match
47.3%Possession4/348.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/33.67 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.3 fouls/matchFouls4/313 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
Goals scored2/2
Goals allowed2/2
Expected goals2/2
Shots2/2
Shots on target2/2
Possession2/2
Corners2/2
Cards0/0
Fouls2/2

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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