PitchMath
Championship · 2025Tue, 3 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeBramall LaneFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSheffield UnitedOxford United
Shots11 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1 xG/match1.06 xG/match▲
Possession70%30%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sydie Peck · Sheffield United · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOliver Arblaster · Sheffield United · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTyrese Campbell · Sheffield United · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWill Vaulks · Oxford United · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWill Vaulks · Oxford United · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndre Brooks · Sheffield United · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSydie Peck · Sheffield United · 41′ · 0.05 xG · goalThomas Cannon · Sheffield United · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndre Brooks · Sheffield United · 66′ · 0.10 xG · goalTyler Bindon · Sheffield United · 36′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMyles Peart-Harris · Oxford United · 46′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Sheffield United · 83′ · 0.51 xG · goalMyles Peart-Harris · Oxford United · 14′ · 0.75 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sheffield United: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.96 xG. Oxford United: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Sydie Peck · Sheffield United · 41′Andre Brooks · Sheffield United · 66′Chiedozie Ogbene · Sheffield United · 83′Myles Peart-Harris · Oxford United · 14′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sheffield United 0.96 xG · Oxford United 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Oxford United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sheffield United, Oxford United. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Oxford United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oxford United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sheffield United, Oxford United.

3.2 days▲Rest daysSheffield United · Oxford United3.2 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSheffield UnitedOxford UnitedBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.2 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Oxford United have a visible away split

moderate

Oxford United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sheffield United
0Draws
0Oxford United
Oxford United — Sheffield United · Championship0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sheffield United favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Oxford United in 0 · 6 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/300.93 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.37 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.05 xG/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/301.22 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2912.3 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2913.9 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/293.48 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/294.07 shots/match
51.5%Possessionseason · 29/2941.6%
7.34 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/293.79 corners/match
4.48 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/297.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3013%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sheffield United60.4
Oxford United2.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sheffield United68.8
Oxford United28.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sheffield United44.5
Oxford United27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sheffield United60.4
Oxford United93.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United47.9
Oxford United64.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United97.9
Oxford United2.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sheffield United70.3
Oxford United35.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.1 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/538.2%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.01 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
51.2%Possession10/1040.6%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored30/300.93 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.37 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.05 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots29/2912.3 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target29/293.48 shots/match
51.5%Possession29/2941.6%
7.34 corners/matchCorners29/293.79 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.47 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals14/150.94 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.93 shots/match
56.6%Possession14/1438.4%
8 corners/matchCorners14/143.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.2 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSheffield UnitedOxford United
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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