PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Avaí vs São Bernardo · Serie B

Avaí

LLLWW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
11.39
Expected goals
0.891.07
Shots
1112.6
Possession
45.3%49.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: avaí's last-five shots average is below their season average. Alongside it: avaí's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Avaí's last-five shots average is below their season average.

5.75 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots5.75 shots/match11 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Avaí have a visible home split

moderate

Avaí's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Avaí favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 9 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Avaí33 matchesSão Bernardo33 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.39 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.09 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals31/32▲ 1.07 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 12.6 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 4.48 shots/match
45.3%Possession31/31● 49.8%
3.84 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.03 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Avaí
1Draws
0São Bernardo
São Bernardo — Avaí · Serie B1–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness27 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAvaíSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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