PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP vs Sport Recife · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.121.36
Expected goals
1.121.41
Shots
12.713.8
Possession
48.9%54.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Sport Recife's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Sport Recife in 8 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP33 matchesSport Recife33 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.41 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots31/32▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.55 shots/matchShots on target31/32▲ 4.25 shots/match
48.9%Possession31/32● 54.3%
6.42 corners/match ●Corners31/324.78 corners/match
15.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3213.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo-SP
3Draws
2Sport Recife
Sport Recife — Botafogo-SP · Serie B3–3
Sport Recife — Botafogo-SP · Serie B3–1
Botafogo-SP — Sport Recife · Serie B1–1
Botafogo-SP — Sport Recife · Serie B1–1
Sport Recife — Botafogo-SP · Serie B3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness20 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPSport Recife
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Sport Recife
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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