PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP vs Ceará · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Ceará

LWLDW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.111.07
Expected goals
1.141.1
Shots
12.513.8
Possession
48.2%51.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Ceará in 3 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP28 matchesCeará29 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/291.07 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed28/291.28 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals27/291.1 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots26/29▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target26/29▲ 4.34 shots/match
48.2%Possession26/29● 51.4%
6.35 corners/match ●Corners26/295.66 corners/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2914.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo-SP
1Draws
3Ceará
Ceará — Botafogo-SP · Serie B0–1
Botafogo-SP — Ceará · Serie B1–4
Ceará — Botafogo-SP · Serie B4–1
Botafogo-SP — Ceará · Serie B2–2
Ceará — Botafogo-SP · Serie B3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness26 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPCeará
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Ceará
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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