PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Náutico 0–2 Novorizontino · Serie B

0–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino won 0–2.

Shots
612
Shots on target
15
Expected goals
0.181.62
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Novorizontino beat Náutico 2–0. Recorded in this match (Náutico – Novorizontino): shots 6–12, shots on target 1–5, expected goals 0.18–1.62, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Novorizontino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Novorizontino's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Náutico have a visible home split

moderate

Náutico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.8 shots/match16.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.96 corners/matchCornersNáutico · Novorizontino● 6.33 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNáuticoNovorizontinoBaseline
Corners5.96 corners/match6.33 corners/match5.33 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots12 shotsNáutico 6 shots, Novorizontino 12 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot5 shotsNáutico 1 shot, Novorizontino 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.18 xG1.62 xGNáutico 0.18 xG, Novorizontino 1.62 xG
  • Possession66%34%Náutico 66%, Novorizontino 34%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersNáutico 3 corners, Novorizontino 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsNáutico 13 fouls, Novorizontino 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsNáutico 3 cards, Novorizontino 2 cards
  • Passes526 passes266 passesNáutico 526 passes, Novorizontino 266 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.5%67.7%Náutico 82.5%, Novorizontino 67.7%
  • Shots inside box2 shots8 shotsNáutico 2 shots, Novorizontino 8 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks1 blockNáutico 0 blocks, Novorizontino 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveNáutico 3 saves, Novorizontino 1 save
  • Offsides2 offsides3 offsidesNáutico 2 offsides, Novorizontino 3 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Náutico
1Draws
0Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Náutico · Serie B2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Náutico favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Náutico32 matchesNovorizontino32 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.69 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals29/30▲ 1.67 xG/match
16.9 shots/matchShots28/3016.2 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target28/30▲ 5.73 shots/match
57.5% ●Possession28/3047.7%
5.96 corners/matchCorners28/30● 6.33 corners/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls28/3013.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNáuticoNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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