PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Náutico vs Novorizontino · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.211.69
Expected goals
1.471.59
Shots
17.715.8
Possession
57.6%48.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: náutico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: náutico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Náutico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Náutico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Náutico have a visible home split

moderate

Náutico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

22.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots22.1 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.24 corners/matchCornersNáutico · Novorizontino● 6.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNáuticoNovorizontinoBaseline
Corners6.24 corners/match6.5 corners/match5.15 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Náutico favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 9

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Náutico28 matchesNovorizontino29 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored28/29▲ 1.69 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed28/29▲ 0.93 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals26/28▲ 1.59 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots25/2815.8 shots/match
5.04 shots/matchShots on target25/28▲ 5.5 shots/match
57.6% ●Possession25/2848.8%
6.24 corners/matchCorners25/28● 6.5 corners/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2813.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Náutico
1Draws
0Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Náutico · Serie B2–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNáuticoNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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