PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

América Mineiro 0–1 Fortaleza · Serie B

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 0–1.

Shots
813
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
0.431.59
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat América Mineiro 1–0. Recorded in this match (América Mineiro – Fortaleza): shots 8–13, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 0.43–1.59, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

América Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

América Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.66 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.66 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots13 shotsAmérica Mineiro 8 shots, Fortaleza 13 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsAmérica Mineiro 1 shot, Fortaleza 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.43 xG1.59 xGAmérica Mineiro 0.43 xG, Fortaleza 1.59 xG
  • Possession52%48%América Mineiro 52%, Fortaleza 48%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersAmérica Mineiro 3 corners, Fortaleza 5 corners
  • Fouls22 fouls11 foulsAmérica Mineiro 22 fouls, Fortaleza 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsAmérica Mineiro 3 cards, Fortaleza 2 cards
  • Passes505 passes472 passesAmérica Mineiro 505 passes, Fortaleza 472 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.7%88.1%América Mineiro 86.7%, Fortaleza 88.1%
  • Shots inside box2 shots9 shotsAmérica Mineiro 2 shots, Fortaleza 9 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks6 blocksAmérica Mineiro 3 blocks, Fortaleza 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveAmérica Mineiro 1 save, Fortaleza 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesAmérica Mineiro 1 offside, Fortaleza 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2América Mineiro
0Draws
3Fortaleza
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie B0–3
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie A3–2
América Mineiro — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1
América Mineiro — Fortaleza · Serie A1–2
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: América Mineiro favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 11 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

América Mineiro32 matchesFortaleza32 matches
0.66 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.16 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.27 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots32/31▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target32/314.23 shots/match
53.3% ●Possession32/3149.5%
5.38 corners/matchCorners32/31● 5.39 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls32/3114.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAmérica MineiroFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headAmérica Mineiro — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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