PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

América Mineiro vs Fortaleza · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.721.11
Expected goals
1.211.25
Shots
13.914.4
Possession
54%48.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: américa Mineiro's last-five shots average is above their season average. Alongside it: fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

América Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

América Mineiro's last-five shots average is above their season average.

20 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots20 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: América Mineiro favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 8 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

América Mineiro29 matchesFortaleza28 matches
0.72 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed29/28▲ 0.82 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals29/281.25 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots29/2714.4 shots/match
4.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/274.3 shots/match
54% ●Possession29/2748.7%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners29/275.48 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls29/2714.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2América Mineiro
0Draws
3Fortaleza
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie B0–3
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie A3–2
América Mineiro — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1
América Mineiro — Fortaleza · Serie A1–2
Fortaleza — América Mineiro · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAmérica MineiroFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headAmérica Mineiro — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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