PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP vs Ponte Preta · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.110.57
Expected goals
1.140.94
Shots
12.510.6
Possession
48.2%41.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: ponte Preta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: botafogo-SP's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Ponte Preta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ponte Preta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo-SP show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Botafogo-SP's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBotafogo-SP · Ponte Preta10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBotafogo-SPPonte PretaBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match18.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Ponte Preta in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP28 matchesPonte Preta28 matches
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/280.57 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/282.21 goals/match
1.14 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/280.94 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots26/2810.6 shots/match
3.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/283.21 shots/match
48.2% ●Possession26/2841.7%
6.35 corners/match ●Corners26/284.39 corners/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2816.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo-SP
2Draws
2Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta — Botafogo-SP · Serie B0–0
Ponte Preta — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–0
Botafogo-SP — Ponte Preta · Serie B2–0
Botafogo-SP — Ponte Preta · Serie B0–0
Ponte Preta — Botafogo-SP · Serie B2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness15 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 29 Sept 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPPonte Preta
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Ponte Preta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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