PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Cuiabá 3–0 Náutico · Serie B

Cuiabá

DWLWD
3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá won 3–0.

Shots
2812
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.980.52
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá beat Náutico 3–0. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – Náutico): shots 28–12, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.98–0.52, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cuiabá's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cuiabá's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Náutico have a visible away split

moderate

Náutico's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match17.5 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Náutico have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.9%PossessionCuiabá · Náutico● 57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCuiabáNáuticoBaseline
Possession47.9%57.5%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots28 shots12 shotsCuiabá 28 shots, Náutico 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsCuiabá 7 shots, Náutico 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.98 xG0.52 xGCuiabá 2.98 xG, Náutico 0.52 xG
  • Possession44%56%Cuiabá 44%, Náutico 56%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersCuiabá 7 corners, Náutico 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls10 foulsCuiabá 18 fouls, Náutico 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsCuiabá 0 cards, Náutico 2 cards
  • Passes392 passes510 passesCuiabá 392 passes, Náutico 510 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.1%82.9%Cuiabá 78.1%, Náutico 82.9%
  • Shots inside box17 shots7 shotsCuiabá 17 shots, Náutico 7 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks4 blocksCuiabá 8 blocks, Náutico 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesCuiabá 2 saves, Náutico 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesCuiabá 1 offside, Náutico 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cuiabá
1Draws
0Náutico
Náutico — Cuiabá · Serie B0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Náutico in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá29 matchesNáutico29 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
0.72 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.24 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals28/27▲ 1.44 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots28/26▲ 17.5 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target28/26▲ 4.92 shots/match
47.9%Possession28/26● 57.5%
5.25 corners/matchCorners28/26● 6.15 corners/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls28/2616.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 22 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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