PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Fortaleza 1–0 Avaí · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

Avaí

WWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–0.

Shots
1014
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.780.99
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Avaí 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Avaí): shots 10–14, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.78–0.99, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

weak

Avaí's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible home split

moderate

Fortaleza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots14 shotsFortaleza 10 shots, Avaí 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsFortaleza 3 shots, Avaí 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.78 xG0.99 xGFortaleza 0.78 xG, Avaí 0.99 xG
  • Possession54%46%Fortaleza 54%, Avaí 46%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersFortaleza 4 corners, Avaí 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls6 foulsFortaleza 12 fouls, Avaí 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsFortaleza 0 cards, Avaí 2 cards
  • Passes560 passes475 passesFortaleza 560 passes, Avaí 475 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.4%88.2%Fortaleza 90.4%, Avaí 88.2%
  • Shots inside box6 shots7 shotsFortaleza 6 shots, Avaí 7 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksFortaleza 2 blocks, Avaí 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesFortaleza 2 saves, Avaí 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesFortaleza 1 offside, Avaí 3 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fortaleza
1Draws
1Avaí
Avaí — Fortaleza · Serie B0–0
Fortaleza — Avaí · Serie A2–0
Avaí — Fortaleza · Serie A3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza27 matchesAvaí27 matches
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.04 goals/match
0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.3 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/260.96 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots26/2611.9 shots/match
4.35 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.5 shots/match
48.7% ●Possession26/2646.6%
5.58 corners/match ●Corners26/263.88 corners/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaAvaí
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headFortaleza — Avaí
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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