PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP 1–3 Novorizontino · Serie B

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino won 1–3.

Shots
139
Shots on target
15
Expected goals
0.681.54
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Novorizontino beat Botafogo-SP 3–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Novorizontino): shots 13–9, shots on target 1–5, expected goals 0.68–1.54, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Novorizontino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Novorizontino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.74 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.36 corners/match ●CornersBotafogo-SP · Novorizontino6.27 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBotafogo-SPNovorizontinoBaseline
Corners6.36 corners/match6.27 corners/match5.14 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Novorizontino have a visible away split

moderate

Novorizontino's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsBotafogo-SP 13 shots, Novorizontino 9 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot5 shotsBotafogo-SP 1 shot, Novorizontino 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.68 xG1.54 xGBotafogo-SP 0.68 xG, Novorizontino 1.54 xG
  • Possession55%45%Botafogo-SP 55%, Novorizontino 45%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersBotafogo-SP 8 corners, Novorizontino 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls17 foulsBotafogo-SP 15 fouls, Novorizontino 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsBotafogo-SP 4 cards, Novorizontino 2 cards
  • Passes384 passes337 passesBotafogo-SP 384 passes, Novorizontino 337 passes
  • Pass accuracy81%75.4%Botafogo-SP 81%, Novorizontino 75.4%
  • Shots inside box7 shots5 shotsBotafogo-SP 7 shots, Novorizontino 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockBotafogo-SP 4 blocks, Novorizontino 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves0 savesBotafogo-SP 2 saves, Novorizontino 0 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides2 offsidesBotafogo-SP 5 offsides, Novorizontino 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo-SP
2Draws
3Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–0
Novorizontino — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–1
Botafogo-SP — Novorizontino · Serie B0–0
Novorizontino — Botafogo-SP · Serie B2–0
Botafogo-SP — Novorizontino · Serie B0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP27 matchesNovorizontino27 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.74 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 0.89 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.53 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots25/26▲ 15.1 shots/match
3.52 shots/matchShots on target25/26▲ 5.35 shots/match
48.3% ●Possession25/2648%
6.36 corners/match ●Corners25/266.27 corners/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2613.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Novorizontino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required