PitchMath
Serie B · 2026Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova FC · Serie B

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino won 2–1.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: novorizontino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Novorizontino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Novorizontino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Novorizontino
1Draws
1Vila Nova FC
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B1–1
Vila Nova FC — Novorizontino · Serie B0–1
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B2–0
Vila Nova FC — Novorizontino · Serie B2–1
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Novorizontino favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Vila Nova FC in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Novorizontino15 matchesVila Nova FC15 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.53 goals/match
0.93 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.13 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/61.27 xG/match
16.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/614.3 shots/match
5.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/64.33 shots/match
50.3%Possession7/6● 54.5%
5.86 corners/match ●Corners7/64 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls7/614 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNovorizontinoVila Nova FC
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headNovorizontino — Vila Nova FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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